An individual earned a substantial sum on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the event.
Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion rose in the hours before Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody.
A single trader, which joined the platform in December and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436K from a starting bet of $32,537.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Platform data shows that traders estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event.
However the odds had increased to eleven percent by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment right before the official statement was made.
"This specific wager has all the signs of a transaction based on inside information," stated an industry expert.
A handful of other individuals also earned significant sums from similar wagers.
Some lawmakers are growing concerned.
A new rule put forward on recently would prevent public officials from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet.
Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with traders able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs.
Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate.
Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market industry.
A company executive for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."
Elena Hartwell is a multidisciplinary artist and educator passionate about fostering creative communities in London.