Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.
On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.
But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.
Here is how the ideal ballot ought to look.
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!
Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.
Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.
Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.
After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.
Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.
Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.
Still
Elena Hartwell is a multidisciplinary artist and educator passionate about fostering creative communities in London.