Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
Elena Hartwell is a multidisciplinary artist and educator passionate about fostering creative communities in London.